Estate workers with an oil palm fruit bunch in Kimanis, Sabah
Workers with oil palm fruit at a plantation in Kimanis, Sabah, on Aug. 20, 2013. Resized file photo. FAO reported palm oil quotations were virtually unchanged in October 2026. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kimanis_Sabah_Workers-in-Palm-Oil-Plantation-01.jpg License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ Photo by CEphoto, Uwe Aranas / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 3.0

World food commodity prices fell in October, but rising sugar and rice quotations underlined why a decline in the overall index does not mean every food ingredient is getting cheaper.

The Food and Agriculture Organization's benchmark averaged 133.9 points, down 1.2% from its revised September level. It remained 5.9% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations agency said in its Nov. 6 release.

The monthly report attributed the overall decline to weaker prices for cereals, dairy and meat, which outweighed increases in sugar and vegetable oils. The index was still 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

Sugar Rises for a Fourth Month

Sugar was the strongest upward mover among the five major groups, rising 6.6% from September and 28.8% over the year to its highest level since December 2024.

FAO linked the increase to rain disrupting sugarcane harvesting and crushing in Brazil's Centre-South region, alongside concerns about production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand. The rise was its fourth consecutive monthly increase.

The cereal group fell 4.5%, yet the separate rice price index increased 1.6%. Harvest delays, adverse weather and rising costs supported rice quotations, illustrating the different pressures within a broad food category.

Oils, Meat and Dairy Diverge

FAO's detailed price-index tables and commentary put vegetable oils 0.3% higher. Soybean and sunflower oil quotations increased, rapeseed oil declined and palm oil was virtually unchanged from September.

Soybean oil reached its highest quotations since late 2022, supported by biofuel demand and seasonally declining South American supplies. Palm oil remained well above its year-earlier level even though its monthly movement was small.

Meat prices fell 1.2%, with poultry broadly stable while pig, bovine and ovine quotations eased. Dairy declined 1.1% as cheaper butter and cheese outweighed higher milk powder quotations.

The benchmark measures international commodity prices. It averages five group indices using their export shares over 2014–2016 as weights. It is therefore a guide to global traded-food markets, rather than a direct reading of the price of a Malaysian grocery basket or restaurant meal.

FAO also cautions that its latest meat-price figures mix projected and observed prices because some quotations are unavailable at publication. Subsequent revisions can alter that component and the overall index.

Large Harvests Do Not Remove Trade Constraints

The agency's separate Cereal Supply and Demand Brief forecasts 2026 world cereal production at 2.999 billion tonnes, the second-highest total after the 2025 record. Rice output is forecast to fall 2.5% to 552 million tonnes, its first contraction in four seasons.

For 2026/27, cereal use is projected at 2.971 billion tonnes, up 0.2%. Global stocks are expected to rise 1.8%, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4%.

Trade is forecast to move in the opposite direction: down 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes. An expected 8.6% contraction in wheat trade is the main driver, reflecting supply or logistical constraints on major exporters.

Rice trade is projected to recover 2.9% in 2027 to 61.6 million tonnes. The differing outlook for production, use and cross-border shipments shows why a large global harvest alone does not settle availability in each importing market.

FAO's next scheduled monthly food-price release is Dec. 4. Its more detailed Food Outlook is due Nov. 19, providing the next assessment of the supply and trade pressures behind the headline price changes.